← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 41% | 47% | 2.40 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.08 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 34' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟥 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ivan Bulos · Boavista |
| 88' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1656.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.07 |
| elo | 1517.25 | 1497.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.71 | -5.79 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |