← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 87% | 1.19 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 12% | 8% | 7.90 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 6% | 5% | 16.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Luís Martins · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 683.00 | 775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.96 |
| elo | 1920.54 | 1552.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.02 | 13.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 1.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 68.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.57 |
| skill v1 | 1.97 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.98 | — |
| state index | 1.64 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |