← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 44% | 51% | 2.24 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 17' | 🟨 | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 22' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 25' | ⚽ | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 36' | 🟨 | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 36' | 🟨 | Allano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Florent Hanin · Belenenses |
| 66' | 🟨 | Edgar Ié · Belenenses |
| 69' | 🟨 | Hassan Yebda · Belenenses |
| 83' | ⚽ | Carlinhos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 86' | 🟥 | Filipe Mendes · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Amado · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 13.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.26 |
| elo | 1495.22 | 1485.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.09 | -9.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.89 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |