← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Chaves win | 24% | 27% | 4.11 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Maritimo |
| 56' | ⚽ | Perdigão · Chaves |
| 82' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 83' | ⚽ | Xavier · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.58 |
| elo | 1544.16 | 1530.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.33 | -13.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |