← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 54% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 17% | 5.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1743.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.98 | 1483.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.19 | 2.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | — |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |