← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 68% | 70% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.96 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 12% | 13% | 8.02 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1613.91 | 1408.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.25 | -11.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 47.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.63 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |