← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 40% | 47% | 2.45 | value: +14% |
| CD Nacional win | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Carlinhos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | ⚽ | Zizo · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adriano Facchini · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 39.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.26 |
| elo | 1498.96 | 1439.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.56 | -14.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.63 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.15 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |