← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 84% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.48 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 4% | 7% | 25.59 | value: +90% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 37' | ⚽ | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 73' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Belenenses |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 311.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.31 |
| elo | 1877.26 | 1518.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.34 | -2.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 64.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 1.19 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.20 | 26.59 |
| state index | 1.73 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |