← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 47% | 43% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 24% | 27% | 4.04 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Pacos Ferreira |
| 18' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · FC Arouca |
| 65' | ⚽ | Andre Santos · FC Arouca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anderson Luis · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.35 |
| elo | 1518.94 | 1507.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.96 | -41.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 27.99 |
| state index | -0.18 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |