← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 17% | 19% | 5.85 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Baiano · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 15' | ⚽ | Federico Cartabia · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 23' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 38' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Maritimo |
| 43' | ⚽ | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Patrick · Maritimo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 83' | ⚽ | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 763.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 1.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.13 |
| elo | 1633.45 | 1540.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.69 | -3.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.54 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |