← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 50% | 50% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Feirense win | 20% | 20% | 4.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Feirense |
| 17' | ⚽ | Juanto Ortuño · Belenenses |
| 40' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Juanto Ortuño · Belenenses |
| 68' | ⚽ | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 78' | 🟨 | Anastasios Karamanos · Feirense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vaná · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.43 |
| elo | 1511.29 | 1457.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.99 | 14.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |