← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 68% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.78 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 12% | 12% | 8.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 13.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1482.82 | 1830.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.68 | 7.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 27.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | — |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.08 |
| state index | -1.06 | 1.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |