← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 39% | 44% | 2.47 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.15 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 28' | 🟨 | Yordan Osorio · CD Tondela |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jailson · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 84' | 🟨 | Diogo Amado · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟥 | Cláudio Ramos · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 487.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.15 |
| elo | 1423.72 | 1483.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.11 | -16.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |