← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 38% | 39% | 2.55 | fair |
| FC Porto win | 32% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.24 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Felipe · FC Porto |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | ⚽ | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 56' | 🟨 | André André · FC Porto |
| 71' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 87' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.47 |
| elo | 1943.71 | 1873.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.33 | 5.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 1.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| league points | 64.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 2.42 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 27.09 |
| state index | 1.85 | 1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.74 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |