← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 39% | 31% | 2.52 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 32% | 42% | 3.07 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1446.34 | 1606.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.60 | 19.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 17.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 11.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.69 |
| state index | -1.14 | 0.56 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |