← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Gegé · Chaves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 81' | 🟨 | Carlos Ponck · Chaves |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 273.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.12 |
| elo | 1523.09 | 1507.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.70 | 15.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.04 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |