← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 78% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 17% | 8.50 | value: +47% |
| Setubal win | 4% | 5% | 23.80 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 291.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1860.93 | 1463.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.18 | -26.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| league points | 62.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | — |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 2.08 | -0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |