← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.34 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 21% | 20% | 4.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Sami · FC Arouca |
| 41' | ⚽ | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 62' | ⚽ | Alhassane Keita · Maritimo |
| 73' | ⚽ | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 749.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.07 |
| elo | 1529.02 | 1493.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.07 | -41.23 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.08 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |