← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 41% | 44% | 2.39 | value: +5% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1593.70 | 1562.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.48 | 13.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |