← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Goncalo Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 35% | 30% | 2.81 | fair |
| Feirense win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.08 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 49' | ⚽ | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 52' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Pedro Queiros · Chaves |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 56' | ⚽ | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 65' | 🟨 | Edson Farias · Feirense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Braga · Chaves |
| 81' | ⚽ | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.11 |
| elo | 1446.32 | 1533.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.69 | 2.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| skill v1 | -2.62 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -1.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |