← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 79% | 82% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.34 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 4% | 18.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1828.41 | 1448.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.15 | -1.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 0.68 |
| state index | 1.35 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |