← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 73% | 78% | 1.34 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.27 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 9% | 10% | 10.99 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ricardo Valente · Pacos Ferreira |
| 77' | 🟨 | Eliseu · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Leal · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 107.00 | 656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.02 |
| elo | 1519.14 | 1951.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.10 | 12.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 26.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.52 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.10 | 2.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |