← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 18% | 22% | 5.44 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 27' | 🟨 | Diego Ivo · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | David Ramirez · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Heliardo · CD Tondela |
| 84' | ⚽ | Modou Sougou · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 17.00 | 473.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.67 |
| elo | 1436.71 | 1421.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.76 | -12.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.75 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |