← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 37% | 39% | 2.67 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Florent Hanin · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 19' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rafael Assis · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 61' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Belenenses |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fábio Nunes · Belenenses |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marafona · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fábio Nunes · Belenenses |
| 84' | 🟥 | Fábio Nunes · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djavan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 473.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.64 |
| elo | 1520.01 | 1624.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.01 | -0.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.72 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |