← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jhonder Cádiz · CD Nacional |
| 80' | 🟨 | Rafael Defendi · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 71.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.77 |
| elo | 1448.83 | 1499.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.03 | 16.80 |
| eye test v1 | -1.56 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.04 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |