← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 19% | 19% | 5.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Alex · Moreirense FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Rafa Soares · Rio Ave FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Roberto · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1715.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.43 |
| elo | 1557.44 | 1442.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.14 | -13.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 32.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |