← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 65% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.15 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 12% | 15% | 8.19 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1598.43 | 1479.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.76 | -6.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |