← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 40% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 29' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 50' | 🟨 | Maurício Antônio · Maritimo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ivan Bulos · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1623.00 | 742.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.60 |
| elo | 1516.11 | 1544.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.92 | 9.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| league points | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.54 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |