← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 67% | 75% | 1.45 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 21% | 13% | 4.62 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 12% | 12% | 8.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 466.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1441.23 | 1844.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.24 | -4.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 16.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 24.55 | — |
| state index | -0.69 | 1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |