← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Feirense win | 21% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.71 | 1433.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.83 | 15.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |