← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 43% | 39% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.37 | value: +16% |
| Chaves win | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Nélson Lenho · Chaves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 80' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.64 |
| elo | 1532.94 | 1625.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.77 | -4.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |