← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 78% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 5.99 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 7% | 9% | 13.03 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 25' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 71' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | André André · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nuno Valente · FC Arouca |
| 86' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 37.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 3.71 |
| elo | 1499.59 | 1855.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.98 | 24.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 1.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| league points | 27.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.46 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.96 |
| state index | -0.72 | 1.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |