← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 40% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.98 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 32% | 3.51 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kleber · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Afonso · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · GD Estoril Praia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dankler · GD Estoril Praia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Carlinhos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5.00 | 1709.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.09 |
| elo | 1495.16 | 1541.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.26 | -8.83 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.26 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |