← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 21% | 27% | 4.67 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 64' | 🟨 | Wagner · CD Tondela |
| 66' | 🟨 | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vasco Rocha · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 94.00 | 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.44 |
| elo | 1502.95 | 1422.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.93 | 9.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.65 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |