← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 50% | 2.37 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.96 | fair |
| Setubal win | 26% | 19% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 735.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1538.14 | 1483.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.17 | 4.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | — |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |