← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 47% | 40% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.17 | value: +13% |
| Chaves win | 23% | 25% | 4.31 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Renan Bressan · Chaves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pedro Tiba · Chaves |
| 71' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 73' | 🟨 | Robert Ahman-Persson · Belenenses |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fábio Nunes · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Sousa · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tiago Caeiro · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 460.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.10 |
| elo | 1513.31 | 1542.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.13 | -10.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |