← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.08 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 14% | 16% | 7.20 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 15' | 🟨 | Kuca · FC Arouca |
| 17' | ⚽ | Mateus · FC Arouca |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nuno Valente · FC Arouca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 73' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Battaglia · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 75' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nelsinho · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 93.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.82 |
| elo | 1617.47 | 1507.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.08 | -20.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.17 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |