← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 86% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 10% | 10.60 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 3% | 19.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Óliver Torres · FC Porto |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 51' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 55' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 62' | 🟥 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 63' | ⚽ | Miguel Layún · FC Porto |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 89' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.40 |
| elo | 1852.18 | 1451.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.03 | 0.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 0.70 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 22.96 | — |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |