← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 72% | 77% | 1.35 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.25 | fair |
| Feirense win | 9% | 11% | 10.68 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Luís Machado · Feirense |
| 28' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Feirense |
| 39' | 🟨 | André Carrillo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 49' | 🟨 | Elvis Babanco · Feirense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Andreas Samaris · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 368.00 | 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.44 |
| elo | 1453.50 | 1947.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.62 | -7.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 64.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.48 |
| skill v1 | -2.40 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.01 | 1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |