← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 44% | 2.35 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Boavista win | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bouba Saré · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Anderson Correia · Boavista |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alex · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rochinha · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2.00 | 1614.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.44 |
| elo | 1441.62 | 1516.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.90 | -2.12 |
| eye test v1 | -1.37 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| league points | 19.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |