← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 41% | 45% | 2.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 31' | 🟨 | Tomané · FC Arouca |
| 33' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 38' | ⚽ | Tomané · FC Arouca |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sinan Bolat · FC Arouca |
| 53' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 57' | ⚽ | Maurides · Belenenses |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · FC Arouca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sema Velázquez · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 26.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.55 |
| elo | 1548.80 | 1520.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.56 | -2.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 27.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.94 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |