← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 39% | 37% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| Setubal win | 29% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1481.31 | 1619.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.63 | -34.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.73 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |