← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 45% | 47% | 2.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Feirense win | 24% | 22% | 4.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nuno Campos · CD Nacional |
| 76' | 🟨 | Fernando Aristeguieta · CD Nacional |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 56.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.93 |
| elo | 1454.10 | 1432.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.46 | 28.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 57.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.14 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -2.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |