← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.66 | value: +12% |
| Boavista win | 9% | 13% | 10.46 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Tiquinho Soares · FC Porto |
| 19' | 🟨 | André André · FC Porto |
| 33' | 🟨 | Carlos Santos · Boavista |
| 42' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 48' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · FC Porto |
| 58' | 🟨 | Carraça · Boavista |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 61' | 🟨 | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 68' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Bukia · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟥 | Maxi Pereira · FC Porto |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lucas Tagliapietra · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1609.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 3.22 |
| elo | 1520.05 | 1848.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.05 | 25.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.41 |
| skill v1 | -1.86 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.96 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |