← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
| CD Tondela win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 18' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Patrick · Maritimo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Xavier · Maritimo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 452.00 | 727.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.69 |
| elo | 1420.42 | 1539.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.75 | 13.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.92 |
| league points | 14.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |