← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 53% | 52% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 19% | 21% | 5.12 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gegé · Pacos Ferreira |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 82' | 🟨 | Filipe Melo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Guedes · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Radosav Petrović · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1700.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 1.27 |
| elo | 1544.80 | 1500.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.84 | -5.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.46 |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.05 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |