← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 68% | 63% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.83 | value: +10% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 11% | 14% | 8.56 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1700.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.52 | 1825.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.43 | -6.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 20.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |