← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 55% | 58% | 1.78 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.52 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 17% | 19% | 5.61 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 90.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1606.83 | 1466.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.10 | 8.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 36.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.86 |
| squad age | — | 25.32 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |