← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 17% | 24% | 5.67 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 66' | 🟨 | Willyan · CD Nacional |
| 80' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 722.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.16 |
| elo | 1563.98 | 1469.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.75 | -19.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.69 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |