← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 446.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1500.29 | 1587.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.71 | -20.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |